Is Canada Day Getting Warmer?
*Originally published on The Wilfrid Laurier University website*
Three dedicated student researchers from Wilfrid Laurier University — Miyuki Niyungeko, Dara Bird, and Hiral Bhavsar — set out to answer this critical question. They analyzed 75 years of temperature data (from 1949-2024) in 14 Canadian capital cities, using July 1 as a reference point. Their comprehensive report reveals a clear and concerning warming trend.
The study indicates average temperature increases ranging between 0.9 and 3.5 degrees Celsius since 1949. While a warmer long weekend might initially sound appealing, the students emphasize that “higher average temperatures present wide-ranging economic, environmental and health risks for Canadians.”
Notably, Regina, Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Halifax have experienced significant increases of between 3.1 and 3.5 degrees Celsius. These figures are well over the threshold set by the United Nations’ Paris Agreement, which aimed to limit global temperature increases to two degrees above pre-industrial levels.
The researchers also observed regional differences in warming. “The presence of oceans has a moderating effect on temperatures, especially in the early summer,” explains Niyungeko. This explains why Prairie provinces, far from the coasts, show much more summertime warming compared to Maritime cities and Victoria. Bird adds that areas like Quebec City and Fredericton, influenced by the Gulf of St. Lawrence and cold Arctic water, show smaller annual temperature ranges.
What Do These Findings Mean?
All three students, passionate about making climate change data accessible, agree that this issue demands greater attention on the political agenda. They point to the increasing prevalence of wildfires, poor air quality, and extreme heatwaves affecting communities nationwide. “Canada has committed to work with the international community to implement the restrictions set by the Paris Agreement,” says Bhavsar, highlighting that the 75-year temperature increases in the Prairies and Halifax are already above that limit.
Their professor, Robert McLeman, praised the students’ work, noting their impressive ability to “get the data, how to process the data — writing computer code to collect it all — and then model it.”
As Canada celebrates Canada Day, the work of these young researchers serves as a powerful reminder of the urgent need for climate action and the vital role of youth in driving this conversation. “If Canadians want to get serious about climate change, now’s the time to connect with each other, especially youth,” says Niyungeko. “I believe there is hope.”
The Numbers
Changes in Average Temperature on Canada Day (1949-2024) (Average linear increase in mean temperature on July 1 from 1949-2024 measured in degrees Celsius. Changes in average temperature is relative to start date (1949). Sourced from Environment and Climate Change Canada.)
- Regina: 3.5°C
- Winnipeg: 3.3°C
- Edmonton: 3.3°C
- Halifax: 3.1°C
- Whitehorse: 2.0°C
- Victoria: 1.7°C
- Charlottetown: 1.5°C
- Iqaluit: 1.5°C
- Yellowknife: 1.4°C
- Toronto: 1.4°C
- Ottawa: 1.4°C
- St. John’s: 1.2°C
- Quebec City: 1.2°C
- Fredericton: 0.9°C
Source: https://wlu.ca/news/spotlights/2025/june/canada-day-heats-up-laurier-student-researchers-warn-of-rising-temperatures-and-climate-risks.html
